Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a ability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
