A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
